(E) Modeling the epidemy – from understanding the basic math of what is exponential growth…
which says, that from the data outside China as March 6th, the number of cases is multiplied by a factor of 10 on average every 16 days, and the cases for a given day are between 1.15 and 1.25 the cases of the previous day…
To applying, the present R zero estimated at around 2.5, and the effects of mitigation and suppression strategies as demonstrated in the “Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID- 19 mortality and healthcare demand” by Professor Neil Fergusson and his team at the Imperial College.
Note 1: the R zero is defined as “the expected number of cases directly generated by one case in a population where all individuals are susceptible to infection.”
Note 2: The picture above is the hot springs from Beitou in Tapei.
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