Covid-19 – Day 128: Simulating Covid-19 Pandemic with SIR and SEIR Models

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(E) Another great video from 3blue1brown’s YouTube channel about understanding and experimenting SIR models.

A SIR model is an epidemiological model, more exactly a compartmental model, that computes the theoretical number of people infected with a contagious illness in a closed population over time. The model consists of three compartments: S for the number of susceptible, I for the number of infectious, and R for the number of recovered or deceased (or immune) individuals:

 

 

A more complex model to understand the Covid-19 pandemic is SEIR – (Susceptible → Exposed → Infected → Removed).

Gabriel Goh, an OpenAI machine learning researcher, has elaborated an SEIR for Covid-19.

Note: The picture above is a painting from Andre Brasilier, Soleil Couchant en Irlande.

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Categories: Coronavirus