Covid-19 – Day 144: Epidemic Overshoot as Pertains to Herd Immunity

Degas_The_Dancing_Lesson

(E)  An excellent Twitter thread from Professor Carl Bergstrom, from the University of Washington, on explaining the impact of overshoot when trying to achieve herd immunity. Long story short: “with an R0 = 2.5, while achieving 60% of herd immunity, another 30% of the population, called overshoot, is also infected, that means that to have herd immunity, 90% of the population needs to be infected!“.

OVERSHOOT

Note: The picture above is a painting from Degas “la leçon de dance”.

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