Covid-19 – Day 144: Epidemic Overshoot as Pertains to Herd Immunity


(E)  An excellent Twitter thread from Professor Carl Bergstrom, from the University of Washington, on explaining the impact of overshoot when trying to achieve herd immunity. Long story short: “with an R0 = 2.5, while achieving 60% of herd immunity, another 30% of the population, called overshoot, is also infected, that means that to have herd immunity, 90% of the population needs to be infected!“.


Note: The picture above is a painting from Degas “la leçon de dance”.

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